Public Agenda Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index

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Methodology and Sponsors

This sixth edition of the study was based on telephone interviews conducted between March 18, 2008 and April 1, 2008 among a nationally representative sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years and older. It covered over 25 different issues in more than 110 different survey questions. The margin of error for this study is plus or minus three percentage points.

Indicator methodology

The Anxiety Indicator is a figure on a scale from 0 to 200, with the neutral value being 100, and is derived by comparing the positive and negative responses to five key questions while disregarding non-responses (such as "not sure" or "no answer").

The five questions are the following:

Thinking about recent U.S. relations with the rest of the world, would you say things are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
How do you think the rest of the world sees the U.S.? Would you say they see the U.S. positively or negatively?
Thinking about current U.S. relations with the rest of the world, would you say that the world is becoming safer or more dangerous for the U.S. and the American people?
How good a job is the United States doing these days as a leader in creating a more peaceful and prosperous world?
Would you say the following is something you worry about a lot, worry about somewhat or you do not worry about this?

These numbers are calculated in the following way:

If the question assumes either one positive or one negative response (right track or wrong direction, yes or no), the following formula is used to calculate this question index component:

K = 100 +(p(-) - p(+))

where p(+) is the percent that answered positively, p(-) is the percent that answered negatively.
If the question allows a choice from two positive or two negative responses (very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied), the following formula is used to calculate this question index component:

K = 100 + (p1(-) - p1(+)) + 0.5*(p2(-) - p2(+))

where p1(+) is the percent that answered strongly positive, p1(-) is the percent that answered strongly negative, p2(+) is the percent that answered moderate positively, and p2(-) is the percent that answered moderately negative.

The index question components are then averaged to calculate the index.

When the index level is more than 100, the number giving a negative response is more than the number giving a positive response. When all answers are strongly positive, the index is 0. When all answers are strongly negative, the index is 200.

Public Agenda is a nonprofit organization dedicated to nonpartisan public policy research. Founded in 1975 by former U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance and Daniel Yankelovich, the social scientist and author, Public Agenda is well respected for its influential public opinion surveys and balanced citizen education materials. Its mission is to inject the public's voice into crucial policy debates. Public Agenda seeks to inform leaders about the public's views and to engage citizens in discussing complex policy issues. Public Agenda Online has just been named one of the "50 Coolest Websites" by Time.com and was a Webby Award finalist.

Since 1922, the Council on Foreign Relations has published Foreign Affairs, America's most influential publication on international affairs and foreign policy. Foreign Affairs has a circulation of 140,000 and was ranked No. 1 in influence by U.S. opinion leaders in last year's national study of publications conducted by Erdos & Morgan, the premier business-to-business research firm. Inevitably, articles published in Foreign Affairs shape the political dialogue for months and years to come.

The Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index has major support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Ford Foundation.