It’s been more than 15 years since Bill Clinton’s campaign advisors confidently declared “it’s the economy, stupid,” to sum up the public’s mood of the moment. For the past few years, foreign policy and the war in Iraq in particular have been at the forefront of public concern. But the economy is reasserting itself as a priority—and economic concerns are shaping how the public views foreign policy.
The most dramatic example of this is the public’s worry about the cost of energy. Fully 7 in 10 say they worry "a lot" about the rise in the cost of energy, a 16-point jump from six months ago. But for the public, economics and security are tied together on this issue. Becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy is now the public’s first choice as a national security strategy, with 6 in 10 saying it would do “a great deal” to make the country more secure.
This is not to say that the Iraq war no longer matters to the public. It does and is still a central concern. But there has been a distinct change in the public’s emphasis. When asked to volunteer the top foreign policy problem facing the United States, Iraq still comes out on top in our survey. But the number who say this has fallen dramatically—a year ago, 29 percent said Iraq was the biggest problem, compared with 19 percent now. That’s a 10-point drop. A year ago, the economy barely registered at three percent as a foreign policy concern. Now 11 percent say the economy’s the biggest international problem—on par with terrorism at 10 percent.
This is the sixth edition of Public Agenda's Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, conducted in association with Foreign Affairs, America's most influential publication on international relations. The index, conducted every six months, uses more than 110 questions to track the average American's state of mind about foreign policy. Each edition seeks to find out what worries the public about the United States' place in the world, to grade the government on its efforts and to determine what they believe the nation's priorities should be.
Previous Edition: Fall 2007
Previous Edition: Spring 2007
Previous Edition: Fall 2006
Previous Edition: Winter 2006
The Tipping Points
by Daniel Yankelovich, Public Agenda Chairman and Co-Founder
Previous Edition: Summer 2005
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Energy Independence: Near the Tipping Point With oil prices at or above record levels, it’s no surprise that public concern about energy has also spiked dramatically. A staggering 70 percent of those surveyed say they worry “a lot” about the rise in the cost of gas and fuel—a 16-point jump.
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The Economy: Shaping Perceptions of Foreign Policy Besides the cost of fuel, the number who worry “a lot” that the United States may owe too much money to other countries rose nine points in six months, to 40 percent. More than half of those surveyed, 53 percent, say they worry “a lot” about protecting American jobs from moving overseas. That’s an eight-point increase over a year.
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Iran: Preference for Diplomacy There’s been a 12-point jump over the last six months in those who favor using diplomacy to establish better relations with Iran, with 47 percent now saying that’s the best strategy. As in previous editions of the survey, very few want to use force or even threaten to do so with Iran.
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Iraq: Relatively Less Important Iraq has been getting less media attention overall, and the surge has produced more positive news coverage. There’s been some improvement in public ratings on Iraq, but the overall picture remains quite negative.
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Key Findings At A Glance
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Copyright © 2008 Public Agenda
No reproduction/distribution without permission
Copyright © 2008 Public Agenda
No reproduction/distribution without permission